The Iranian attack on Israel: 4 scenarios that could unfold now

The recent Iranian attack on Israel using drones marked a significant escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, leading to questions about future scenarios that could open up in this already highly unstable region. This article explores the possible directions the conflict could take, based on expert analysis and credible sources.

Scenario 1: military escalation

The drone attack could represent the beginning of a series of more aggressive military actions by Iran, which could include further airstrikes, missile launches and sabotage operations against Israeli targets.

Israel, for its part, could respond with targeted attacks against Iranian military infrastructure in Syria and Iran, potentially leading to direct military escalation between the two countries.

Scenario 2: international mediation

The international community, concerned about the possible consequences of a military escalation, could actively intervene to mediate between the parties.

The United States, the European Union and other powers such as Russia could apply diplomatic pressure on Israel and Iran to begin negotiations and prevent further violence.

This scenario involves increased diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region and address underlying issues through dialogue.

Scenario 3: involvement of regional actors

The conflict could lead to greater involvement of other regional actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, who could launch attacks against Israel in coordination with or in support of Iran.

This scenario could turn the conflict into a larger regional war, involving multiple countries and militias.

Scenario 4: stalemate and prolonged tensions

Another possible scenario is that of a stalemate, in which neither side manages to gain a decisive advantage.

This could lead to a prolonged period of tensions and sporadic clashes, without a definitive resolution to the conflict.

In this scenario, the risk of accidental incidents and regional instability would remain high, with possible repercussions on global security and energy markets.

The Iranian drone attack against Israel opens up a series of complex scenarios for the future of the Middle East. While military escalation remains an immediate concern, the possibility of international mediation and the involvement of other regional actors could significantly influence the course of events.

The international community faces the challenge of preventing further escalation and working towards a peaceful and lasting solution to the conflict.

Read also: Which countries do not recognize Palestine, and which ones Israel?

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