2024 US election polls: who will win between Trump and Biden?

Elizabeth Smith

US election polls 2024: who wins between Donald Trump and Joe Biden? Anticipation is growing for the vote that will be held on November 5th, with the usual primaries which have already outlined who the Republican and Democratic candidates will be.

After Nikki Haley‘s withdrawal from the GOP, only Donald Trump remained in the running. The tycoon also obtained the green light from the Supreme Court – given the various ongoing trials – for his candidacy for the White House.

Among the Democrats, however, Jason Palmer remains in the field only on paper, with Joe Biden having so far won in all the states where the primaries for the 2024 US elections were held except for the caucuses in American Samoa.

Barring any sensational surprises, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will once again compete in the 2024 United States presidential elections, with the polls seeming to predict a head-to-head similar to that of 2020.

Unlike four years ago, however, according to the polls, Trump would now be in the lead. But the feeling is that the 2024 US elections will be decided in the swing states where in 2020 Biden managed to prevail by a handful of votes.

US elections 2024: the polls

As per tradition, there are many polls carried out in the United States in view of the 2024 US elections. In addition to those regarding the final victory, there are also those regarding the primaries and the challenges in the individual states.

Given the outcome of the primaries, everything currently suggests a replay of the challenge between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2024.

In this regard, the average of the polls calculated by Real Clear Politics and updated to April 2 sees the tycoon as the favorite with an almost two percentage point advantage over Biden.

  • Donald Trump – 46.5%
  • Joe Biden – 45.5%

However, independent candidates could also run in the 2024 US elections. And, in the case of a five-way race for the White House, this would be the scenario prefigured by Real Clear Politics with Trump’s advantage increasing thanks to the presence of Kennedy Jr.

In the challenge for control of Congress, according to the calculations of the specialized site 270towin.com at the moment the Democrats are sure of obtaining 226 electors against the 235 of the Republicans.

Polls in Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania

To reach the fateful threshold of 270 delegates, even in 2024 those 77 seats in the six swing states where Trump would have the advantage will most likely be decisive.


  • Donald Trump – 47.3%
  • Joe Biden – 44.3%


  • Donald Trump – 50.8%
  • Joe Biden – 45.6%


  • Donald Trump – 48.3%
  • Joe Biden – 47.5%


  • Donald Trump – 48.8%
  • Joe Biden – 43.6%


  • Donald Trump – 47.4%
  • Joe Biden – 43.9%


  • Donald Trump – 47.4%
  • Joe Biden – 47.2%

Read also: Caucuses or primaries? How the early stages of US presidential elections work

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